Electric vehicles in the United Kingdom: resource requirements and the path towards net zero

May 18, 2026

As of 2019, the UK amended the Climate Change Act to set a legally binding net zero target for 2050. With transport in the UK accounting for 29% of all greenhouse gas emissions in 2023, the most emissions intensive sector of the UK economy, reaching net zero will require a shift within the automotive industry from internal combustion engine vehicles to electric vehicles (EVs). However, this shift necessitates sizeable quantities of battery metals with demand nearly doubling for metals such as copper and increasing by 1100% for lithium by 2035. So, considering this, what does the path towards net zero look like for the UK?

Mandatory government bans restricting the sale of new petrol or diesel vehicles after 2030, with all new cars being 100% emission-free by 2035, have facilitated a rapid increase in demand for battery materials. More broadly, the deployment of EVs sits within the wider energy transition, with UK battery demand predicted to exceed 100 GWh annually by 2030, while reaching roughly 160 GWh by 2035. As the automotive industry is forecast to account for approximately 90% of this demand, the speed at which EVs are adopted will heavily determine the scale of the UK’s future battery supply challenge and the achievement of net zero in the decades to come.

The materials with the highest importance to EV battery manufacturing, and thus those that will be impacted most by rising demand include copper, cobalt, nickel, lithium, graphite, and aluminium. The International Energy Agency noted that lithium will see the most drastic demand growth, increasing over 40 times by 2040, followed by graphite, cobalt, and nickel, which will increase by roughly 20-25 times.

To accommodate these demand increases, the UK must strengthen various stages of the battery-material supply chain, from the sourcing of raw minerals and refining procedures to cell manufacturing and recycling. To do so, the UK’s critical mineral strategy sets out a mixed approach requiring at least 10% of annual critical mineral demand to be met via domestic production by 2035 including primary extraction as well as processing and refining. Additionally, 20% of demand must be met using recycling and supply must be diversified with less than 60% of the UK’s annual critical mineral demand being supplied by a single country. This required diversification reduces exposure to geopolitical, trade, and supply disruptions. Notably, current supply looks unlikely to meet projected need without rapid expansion, where UK battery plants are expected to provide just 57.6 GWh of capacity by 2030. Though recycling is often suggested as a crucial solution to increasing these supply projections, not only does it require vehicles to reach end of life but recycling infrastructure is also still in its infancy due to the relatively recent development of electric vehicle battery technology. As such, near-term solutions must be developed, advancing domestic mineral production alongside strengthening international partnerships.

Ultimately, the path to net zero depends not only on the replacement of petrol and diesel reliant vehicles with EVs, but also on securing the critical minerals needed to produce them. Without increases in domestic supply, development of recycling infrastructure, and international partnerships, the UK will face immense challenges reaching net zero in the coming decades.

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