'Inevitable': humanity's overshoot of the Paris Agreement's 1.5C target

UN Secretary-General António Guterres has today declared it “inevitable” that the world will exceed the 1.5°C global temperature increase limit set by the Paris Agreement, at least temporarily, in the coming years. Guterres openly acknowledged the international community’s failure to meet this critical target, warning of “devastating consequences” from this overshoot—such as the potential triggering of irreversible tipping points for the Amazon rainforest, Greenland’s ice, Western Antarctica, and coral reefs.

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Guterres emphasised that while some progress has been made in increasing renewable energy deployment and cutting emissions, these efforts are not sufficient. Global climate pledges and actions are currently expected to reduce emissions by only about 10% by 2035, far short of the 60% cut required for a likely chance of staying below 1.5°C. He urged world leaders to take urgent, more ambitious action, stressing that the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal remains paramount for avoiding the worst impacts of climate change, and calling for rapid emissions reductions and net-zero commitments to help return global temperatures below the threshold as quickly as possible after any overshoot.

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Mr Guterres’ remarks come just days before COP30 climate talks begin in Belem, Brazil, highlighting the urgency and scale of the challenge, as well as the need for new, much stronger national climate pledges—especially from the largest emitters.

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Banner photo: ID 121633288 © Paschalis Bartzoudis | Dreamstime.com

Gallery photo of Antonio Guterres: ID 95797365 © Palinchak | Dreamstime.com

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