2024 confirmed as hottest year on record

Global average temperatures were 1.6C above pre-industrial levels for the first time in 2024, it has been confirmed by a spokesperson for theWorld Meteorological Organisation. This comes a decade after 2014’s Paris Agreement, which committed the world to keeping increases in global surface temperatures to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels, with an ideal limit being 1.5C. Keeping increases below by 2030 will require cuts in fossil fuel emissions of 45% by that year.

A single year above 1.5C does not necessarily mean that the Paris agreement has failed. We need to have several decades measuring above that level to prove that the target has indeed been missed. However, with every year of the past decade being in the top ten hottest years recorded globally(since records began in 1850) the warning signs are clear for everyone to see.

High temperatures, combined with record global atmospheric water vapour levels have worsened extreme heat waves and heavy rainfall events during the year, including the Valencia floods and drought in the Amazon rainforest. The average person was exposed to an extra six weeks of dangerously hot days during 2024.

Climate change has created the conditions that have caused the wildfires that are currently causing enormous damage in the areas surrounding Los Angeles, California. It’s still unclear whether the fires started naturally, or whether there was a human cause– as there is for around 85% of forest fires in the USA. But however they started, the fires were able to take hold and spread so quickly because of climate change. In the last 16 months, southern California has seen its hottest summer in history, followed by a dry rainy season, during which only 2% of the usual rain has fallen.

As a result, the conditions were already very dry and made it easier for a fire to start naturally. When you add in a fastest ever recorded Santa Ana wind, which was gusting to 100mph on Wednesday 8 January and you create the ideal conditions for enabling the fires to spread rapidly over the dry ground. Timing is also a key factor: wildfires in January are rare in California – meaning that many firefighters were on leave when the fires started, with fire equipment in storage. Moreover, the string winds have prevented firefighting aircraft from being used to tackle the flames. The result is a perfect firestorm, which has seen 100,000 people ordered to leave their homes, at least ten lives lost, as well as massive destruction of property, with at least 10,000 buildings destroyed. Insurance costs are estimated to be $10 billion or more.

Alarmingly, carbon emissions, (caused by burning fossil fuels, like oil, gas and coal) are expected to have set a new record in 2024, showing that the world is still dragging its feet in its attempts to transition away from the use of fossil fuels. Based on current estimates, our planet is expected to see 2.7C of global heating by 2100.

Photo: firefighters damping down after putting out fires on 8 January 2025. The fires continue to burn in other areas.
(photo by Daniel Urdanivia)

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